Rain Is Constant, Videos Are Van Goghized

A comment most ii interesting plenty papers.

The changes inward global hateful temperature are discussed all the fourth dimension but what has happened alongside the pelting since 1850? Has it been increasing or decreasing? The Journal of Hydrology has published a newspaper giving a clear answer:

Changes inward annual atmospheric precipitation over the Earth’s province volume excluding Antarctica from the 18th century to 2013

Hat tip: Not a lot of people know that in addition to Climate Depot.

Physicists W.A. van Wijngaarden in addition to A. Syed from Toronto took 1,000 stations into concern human relationship in addition to the trends (changes of atmospheric precipitation expressed inward percents per century) are the following:

1850-2000: -1.2 ± 1.7% per century
1900-2000: +2.6 ± 2.5% per century
1950-2000: -5.4 ± 8.1% per century

The trends seem to hold upwards zero: all of the deviations are safely below ii sigma. There's no pregnant signal. Note that the longer periods, particularly from 1850, create to a greater extent than precise values for the "basically zero" trend, despite the fact that they depend on some "ancient" data, because the dissonance from a larger number of years averages out to a greater extent than accurately.




The total total of atmospheric precipitation doesn't detectably increase. It doesn't significantly decrease, either. The maximum accuracy 1 tin extract is "plus minus a few per centum per century". This is much poorer precision than the estimated trends of the temperature. If you lot naturally verbalize most the absolute temperature (in kelvins), the centennial tendency is existence quantified alongside the precision of 0.1 °C which is 0.03% of the temperature to a greater extent than or less 300 kelvins.




The poorer precision of the atmospheric precipitation information is basically because the total of atmospheric precipitation every twelvemonth behaves similar the white noise. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 novel twelvemonth is basically independent from the previous one. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 novel random number emerges every year. There's non much autocorrelation. On the other hand, the temperature is closer to the cherry-red dissonance – the component subdivision \(T(t)\), the temperature every bit a component subdivision of time, is continuous (although non necessarily nicely differentiable) in addition to it's basically the year-on-year temperature alter that is an independent random number every twelvemonth (up to some pinkness of the noise, in addition to some rule when the accumulated departure becomes also high).

This red-noise or random-walk graphic symbol of the temperatures implies that it doesn't thing much whether you lot include some other twelvemonth – the component subdivision looks smoother (at to the lowest degree continuous) than the white-noise atmospheric precipitation data.

Some people's panic most the detectably nonzero temperature tendency is a self-inflicted injury, however. As I only explained, it's much easier to present that the tendency is dissimilar from zero, due to the relative smoothness of the data. On the other hand, the atmospheric precipitation information which bear every bit white dissonance acknowledge changes of the atmospheric precipitation yesteryear 5% per century. If such a tendency existed (with either sign), it would arguably convey a greater number on the ecosystems in addition to human societies than the observed alter of the temperature yesteryear 1 °C per century or so.

But nosotros can't reliably prove, using the empirical data, that the tendency is 0% rather than 5%, or 5% rather than 0%. So the atmospheric precipitation alarmism isn't every bit pop every bit the temperature alarmism. But the principal ground why the atmospheric precipitation alarmists haven't proliferated every bit much every bit the temperature alarmists is the fact that the white-noise-like quantities such every bit atmospheric precipitation inevitably create greater mistake margins of the trend, every bit I only argued. That's why the tendency for the temperature could convey been distinguished from null but the atmospheric precipitation tendency couldn't have. The actual magnitude of the tendency was pretty much irrelevant for the query whether a type of the hysteria emerges or not.

Van Gogh effects for your flick maker

MIT Technology Review has mentioned an interesting preprint

Artistic agency transfer for videos

by Manuel Ruder, Alexey Dosovitskiy, Thomas Brox who operate inward Freiburg, Germany. First, remind yourself what the paintings yesteryear van Gogh looked like. One of these messy papers may hold upwards sold for millions.

Now, the folks may create whole movies – alongside thousands of frames – inward the van Gogh style. And it costs almost nothing.



A longer video is available.

They may laid out alongside animated or human movies in addition to "transfer the style" of van Gogh to each frame of the video, according to a lately introduced algorithm. The resulting videos hold back cute. Maybe I would prefer to lookout adult man many things inward the van Gogh (or another) style.

I am surprised they are posting it every bit a preprint. They should convey sold it to companies producing flick makers first. I would similar to convey the "Effects / Van Gogh" in addition to maybe similar entries inward the menus! The authors are recommended to monetize their algorithm in addition to pay me 5% of the turn a profit for their gratitude for my fantabulous idea.