He may receive got flaws but every bit far every bit I tin say, he represents a much improve administration for the futurity of America – as well as the West – than his competitor. His victory – 306 to 232 electoral votes or as well as then (or 30-to-20 states) – is audio as well as the departure inwards the pop vote is only 0.2 pct points inwards Hillary's favor. And every bit Ann Coulter has observed, if exclusively people whose grandparents already lived inwards the U.S. of A. were voting, Trump would receive got safely won all 50 states inwards a landslide.
A 20-minute victory speech communication alongside some fancy music. I think that the man child (Barron) Trump is rather annoyed past times all this stuff. ;-) Later, Clinton's concession speech was relaxed, generous, professional, as well as maybe fifty-fifty to a greater extent than peaceful or friendly than Trump's victory speech. Obama's comments were also wise as well as a clear sign that the civil state of war has abruptly ended.
Only a few people say it hither – similar Klaus' aide Weigl – but the newly elected president is also the manlike individual raise of iii half-Czech kids, a item that could convey Czech Republic an exemption when Europe needs to live nuked. (Jokes aside: I produce think that Trump is a improve tidings for the ground peace than Hillary would.)
He's been the most visible candidate for to a greater extent than than a yr as well as this visibility made it unavoidable for him to live Trump phenomenon would naturally brand him the GOP nominee. I agreed alongside him concerning the conduct of Muslims afterwards 9/11 attacks, suggested that his refusal of PC may live plenty to win. And I repeatedly disagreed alongside him concerning bubbles as well as the independence of the fundamental banks. These disagreements on these issues – as well as gratis merchandise – shouldn't obscure the fact that he's otherwise a rather measure advocate of lower taxes, trickle-down economics, as well as other insights that I consider essential inwards economics.
So inwards most posts, I defended him – against weird cruel attacks past times Tao, Susskind, Aaronson, Woit, as well as those who blamed him for the passengers' ignorance of calculus.
But a recurring theme were my opinions nearly the bold claims past times lots of people – inwards really many influential environments, really clear majorities – that Trump had no endangerment to win. In Dec 2015, I argued that those who mock Trump are detached from reality.
Now it looks uncomplicated as well as obvious. My claims that the polls were "just similar inwards the instance of Brexit" were totally right. The whole media as well as polling mechanism systematically tried to brand the "politically incorrect" selection human face weaker inwards both cases. The differences of percentages differed past times almost 10% betwixt the average forecasts as well as the reality.
In the long run, I did think that Trump would win the presidency but only ix hours agone when I went to bed, I was persuaded past times groups such every bit (especially) Votecastr that they're doing a fair project as well as they can't live wrong past times v pct points. They were predicting Hillary's victory inwards virtually all swing states as well as the predictions claimed to accept some existent votes into concern human relationship according to a mathematically sophisticated algorithm I constitute rather reasonable. Well, fifty-fifty these seemingly impartial as well as bipartisan "data experts" were completely wrong as well as worthless.
At the end, I think that fifty-fifty seemingly impartial groups similar that were badly contaminated past times dishonest people.
If you lot looked at many agencies as well as polls as well as if you lot averaged their forecasts, you lot haven't improved the accuracy of your noesis nearly the outcome of the elections at all – only similar inwards Feynman's even nearly the length of the Chinese emperor's nose. An overwhelming bulk of sources were trying to convince you lot nearly a wrong answer. In the jargon of experimental physics, the errors of diverse agencies as well as pundits weren't independent from each other. They weren't statistical but rather systematic, i.e. correlated alongside each other – because they were coming from a "single source", as well as then to say.
So polls showing a Clinton victory were almost everywhere, peculiarly inwards the media. Fox News was the exclusively major U.S. of A. TV that avoided the mandatory "news" that Clinton's victory was a for sure thing. But nosotros could listen this certainty – backed past times nix – from lots of people around us, too. For example, a far left Romanaian interpretational pseudoscientist Florin Moldoveanu picked a bold confront font to tell us some bold things:
By straight off the election outcome is all but certain: Trump volition lose, as well as Clinton volition win, but what is the footing for this prediction?These are only 2 instance sentences – he has written whole kilobytes where this absolute garbage was beingness repeated all the time.
...
But past times straight off is is clear Trump's chances of election are virtually null as well as this has the potential to split upwards the Republican party.
He wrote it on Oct 14th. Just attempt to recollect how many of import events affecting the outcome receive got taken identify since Oct 14th – from irrelevant novel accusations nearly grabbed pußies to a restarted FBI investigation as well as the 2d intermission of it. Where tin someone acquire such a mixture of arrogance as well as myopia to live this for sure nearly similarly clearly uncertain things – as well as produce as well as then such a long fourth dimension ahead of the event? (Well, 3 weeks are nonetheless shorter than 100 years, the typical menstruum for which the climate hysterics "predict" the weather.) The subjective certainty of hacks similar Moldoveanu is absolutely amazing. I was explaining to him why the whole footing of his thinking has been shown to live a identify of cards but it's similar speaking to a wall. My attempts to explicate basics of quantum mechanics to him seem similarly hopeless.
But lots of other people were acting inwards almost the same way every bit Moldoveanu. Well, Hillary herself declared Trump a "sore loser" weeks agone as well as she decided that she could erase him from his life because he was guaranteed to lose as well as acquire irrelevant. H5N1 typical arrogant bitch. But I am primarily talking nearly "seemingly impartial" people around us. On Oct 12th, our Gene Day told us:
Re. Donald Trump, the number 1 dominion inwards life is, when you lot break yourself inwards a hole, to halt digging. Trump doesn't acquire it.So I asked him: What hole? What the hell are you lot talking about? Trump wasn't digged inwards whatsoever hole. He was running a vigorous drive which turned out to live successful. Gene may disagree alongside Trump's goals, methods, as well as manner but Gene isn't the dictator as well as then this disagreement inwards no way way that Trump is excavation a hole for himself. Gene, would you lot concur that despite your large mouth, you lot were wrong? Would you lot concur that to amplify your guesses past times describing them every bit "the number 1 dominion of life" was only painfully arrogant as well as stupid?
We could truly run across that Trump's was a goodness strategy. Dilbert's creator Scott Adams who predicted Trump's victory – as well as he was truly a rare Trump-win believer amid pundits who are comparably famous (if nosotros omit some "possibly mandatory optimism" of the members of the Trump drive itself) – gave us some explanations of the logic of Trump's drive as well as why it was destined to live a winning one. We must live careful: Adams' right prediction of the outcome does not imply that all the details inwards his argumentations were right. But I was classify of persuaded past times them, too.
I've mentioned that the errors of the forecasts – which underestimated the Trump-Clinton departure past times 5-10 points – apparently cannot live statistical errors. This false forecast can't live due to some accidental noise, isolated random mistakes inwards the agencies' prediction of the voters' behavior. Trump was heavily underestimated inwards virtually every grouping that claimed to render us alongside the information. The large inaccuracies receive got to live due to a systematic error.
We may inquire whether the systematic error is due to something "morally neutral" or "something evil". I am absolutely convinced that it's the latter. Without evil, many agencies would live capable of reducing the inaccuracy to a few percent past times applying adjustments that are clearly needed. They would live able to figure out what the people truly think.
The claims nearly Trump's depression chances were apparently due to the anti-Trump activists' efforts to intimidate Trump supporters as well as convince them that they are a utilization of a minority that is saltation to lose as well as confront some trouble. Contemporary leftists dearest to whine all the fourth dimension – for example, women collectively suck inwards mathematics, as well as then it must live due to some evil men etc.! – as well as this whining brings them diverse advantages either because people around are fooled, gullible, compassionate human beings; or, to a greater extent than often, because people only don't desire to heed to this whining which is amplified past times a community of brownshirts who tin truly price you.
But inwards the elections, the whining only doesn't assist your side to win. The ballots are hugger-mugger as well as no 1 tin strength the voters to vote inwards 1 way or another. It's to a greater extent than helpful for the activists to adopt a muscular tone. We're crushing the enemy, the anti-Trump activists were screaming, as well as live careful non to live crushed every bit well. All of this has ever been pure rubbish as well as lies.
All of it would live classify of fine. There are people who manipulate because they consider a particular large outcome to live to a greater extent than of import than the cleanness of the methods – which may sometimes live sensible. The existent employment is that liars as well as bullies similar that basically command the political sections of newspapers, polling agencies, universities, as well as many other of import spots. So they collectively guaranteed that their ideological goals were always to a greater extent than of import than the cleanness of the methods – as well as that would hateful the cease of democracy. In many environments, they are clear majorities; inwards others, they may live minorities but they are majorities amid those who dare to speak. They don't break lies troublesome for a uncomplicated reason. They receive got been lying (and harming inconvenient people around them) pretty much 24 hours a hateful solar daytime for many, many years as well as they receive got never faced whatsoever tangible backlash. Whether you lot similar it or not, most truth-telling people avoid lies because they may confront some problems when they're caught lying. If there's no God as well as no human who takes tending of the punishment, most people break lies OK for them.
I promise that this volition stop. One of the most well-defined examples of a persistent prevarication that is beingness defended past times dishonest bullies similar that is the climate hysteria, the claim that the climate is going to modify dangerously as well as it volition live because of the human activity, peculiarly 1 involving CO2. Most people know this claim to live rubbish. And amid those who receive got honestly studied this interrogation using scientific tools, the fraction of those who realize that the worries are non backed past times whatsoever evidence adds upwards to a really good for you lot majority.
Nevertheless, nosotros nonetheless listen the indefinitely repeated lies nearly those 97% who back upwards the climate hysteria. They're pretty much the same people every bit those who receive got been assuring us that Trump couldn't win. H5N1 deceitful, completely corrupt motility of by as well as large far left activists. I promise that President Trump volition receive got the muscles to eradicate this climate hysteria motility non exclusively inwards the U.S. of A. but inwards the whole world. Dismantling of the U.S. of A. role inwards the "Paris Agreement" should live the beginning.
Clinton's supporters openly weep as well as I think that President Clinton has at most weeks left to acquire a fugitive (perhaps to Venezuela? Probably to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or Qatar where she has truthful allies) instead of a prisoner because the politically distorted claims that she hasn't done whatsoever criminal offence are belike going to crumble, too. Hillary, you lot truly don't receive got also much fourth dimension left. (Thankfully, afterwards some hints that she wouldn't concede, she did concede past times phone.)
There is some hysteria inwards the ground including the markets. H5N1 similar 1 lasted some 2 days afterwards the Brexit plebiscite – except for the telephone substitution charge per unit of measurement of the pound that has significantly weakened inwards the long run. The thought that Trump is a tragedy for the U.S. of A. or the ground economic scheme is a crazy fairy-tale, too. (I think that the 10% weakening of the Mexican currency is irrational, too. Trump volition mainly wound the prosperity of those who receive got illegally escaped or who desire to illegally escape United Mexican States but if they don't escape or if they're returned, United Mexican States may relish a greater economical activity that would otherwise accept identify inwards the U.S.)
[Update inwards the afternoon: Wow, Dow goes upwards 1% inwards the day, DAX past times 1.5%. The overnight –750 points driblet inwards DJIA futures was to a greater extent than than undone.]
Will the people acquire it? How much fourth dimension produce they demand for that? Those of you lot who merchandise things, receive got you lot noticed that the post-Brexit stock marketplace hysteria was based on a prevarication (about a non-existent tragedy), much similar the predictions were based on lies?
Trump has built huge skyscrapers at many places of the U.S. of A. as well as the globe. You truly shouldn't await that he is some contrarian who can't operate alongside the system. He tin operate alongside it really well. Where he differs is that he has used some of his wealth to construct a huge, beautiful wall that shields him from the political correctness (and a few related things) as well as the small jihadists who spread it. The small politically right jihadists receive got ruined many people's lives as well as they receive got forced many other people to live still as well as apologize for things they should live proud about.
But these small PC jihadists were also weak to musical rhythm out Donald Trump. Trump's supporters suspected that it would live the instance as well as that was a ground why the back upwards was as well as then massive. It wasn't the exclusively grouping but tens of millions of Trump's voters were folks who were materially as well as unfairly harmed past times the politically as well as ideologically motivated bullies who chose Hillary Clinton every bit the defender of their power.
Congratulations to Donald Trump 1 time again. I promise that the circumstances volition live favorable for him as well as that the existent or hypothetical flaws volition plough out to live harmless signs of his personality. For one, I think it's obvious that Trump volition acquire – or has already acquire – relaxed as well as conciliatory as well as nosotros volition chop-chop larn he is a source of grin rather than tension. Just play the incredibly conciliatory speech communication at the top! What Václav Klaus predicted nearly Trump's "changing roles" is already taking identify 100%. (But Klaus was by as well as large wrongly betting on Hillary's victory.)
The electrical current Czech president's well-known spokesman has said that the Trump victory shows that lies, hatred, media, as well as pseudoelites may live defeated. Like Klaus, Zeman previously endorsed Trump. See also a new delighted reaction past times ex-president Klaus who also enumerates many of those who receive got lost – as well as hopes that afterwards Brexit as well as Trump, a similar moving ridge volition brand it to the continental Europe.
By the way, the propaganda was also seen inwards the reporting of the opinions inwards countries similar mine. Look at this chart inwards the Economist. The whole ground is much to a greater extent than anti-Trump than America itself. Except that countries similar most of the post-communist ground – where Trump was ahead, peculiarly inwards Russia – were completely omitted inwards the graph. Clearly, it was a deliberate distortion.